Which of our species are most at risk as the Caribbean changes?
The ocean around Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands is warming, becoming more acidic, and losing oxygen. Not every species will feel those changes the same way.
To get ahead of this, scientists and local fishery managers carried out the U.S. Caribbean Climate Vulnerability Assessment (CVA), completed between 2024 - 2026. It looked at 25 fish and invertebrate species that matter to fishing communities in Puerto Rico and the USVI.
A CVA asks two things about each species: how much is the ocean likely to change where it lives, and how well can its biology cope with that change? It works like a health check. It ranks which species face the greatest risk so that managers and fishing communities can plan ahead. It does not predict future catches.
It is considered a rapid assessment because it does not need the years of survey data and population modeling that procedures like a traditional stock assessment require. It combines existing ocean projections with what is already known about each species' biology, usually over one or two focused years of data analysis. The Caribbean CVA is the last for the US fishery regions to be completed.
The community workshops bring these results to the people who fish these waters and also to academics, scientists and NGO representatives. This page shares the same information with those who cannot attend, or who just want to learn more.
How risk was measured
Every species received two scores, one for the elements of the climate around it and one for its own biology. Combined, they give a vulnerability rank.
How much will its surroundings change?
Projections from global climate models (CMIP6) for Caribbean waters, comparing 2020–2049 with a 1985–2014 baseline. Temperature, acidity, oxygen, salinity and more.
How well can it cope?
How fast it matures, how many young it produces, whether it depends on coral reefs or seagrass, how far it can move, how narrow its temperature tolerance is, among others.
Its overall climate risk
Each species lands in one of four ranks.
Four steps from data to ranking
Ocean exposure
Climate model projections for Caribbean waters were pulled for each factor and scored by how much conditions change for each species.
Biological sensitivity
Decades of published research on each species were compiled: growth, reproduction, habitat needs, temperature tolerance and more.
Expert scoring panel
A total of 17 experts reviewed the species, with four experts scoring each species using NOAA's standard framework, adapted for Puerto Rico and the USVI.
Certainty testing
The full analysis was rerun 10,000 times with slightly different assumptions (bootstrap resampling) to see how often the same rank came out. Other metrics like directional change and data quality were tested.
What was scored
Open any item to read what it means and why it matters for fish.
Climate exposure factors 15 factors
How the ocean itself is changing. Experts decided which factors apply to each species but the scores were generated computationally.
Biological sensitivity attributes 14 attributes
How each species' biology and life history shape its ability to cope. All 14 were scored for all 25 species.
Direction: harm or help?
Besides a risk rank, every species received a directional effect: whether changing environmental conditions are expected to harm it overall (Negative), help it (Positive), or have mixed results (Neutral). This comes from weighing the stressors that tend to hurt the species against those that might benefit it.
How sure are the rankings?
The certainty percentage is the share of the 10,000 reruns of the statistical testing that reached the same rank. A low number usually means the species sits close to the boundary between two ranks.
Eleven of 25 species face high climate risk
Parrotfish, groupers, several snappers, the long-spined sea urchin and sea cucumbers rank High or Very High. Open-water and schooling species such as dolphinfish, king mackerel and ballyhoo rank Low.
species are projected to be harmed overall (Negative direction). The other 8 are Neutral.
species are projected to benefit overall from climate change.
certainty for the Rainbow Parrotfish (Very High) and Nassau Grouper (High) rankings.
All 25 species
Grouped by vulnerability rank.
| Species | Vulnerability | Certainty | Exposure | Sensitivity | Direction |
|---|
Certainty is the share of 10,000 bootstrap resampling runs that confirmed the assigned rank. Direction is the projected net effect of climate change on the species.
What the science cannot see on its own
The assessment was built from published research and expert scoring panels. It cannot capture the knowledge of people who have fished these waters for years or decades.
Observations from fishers, especially trends noticed over time, are real scientific data. At the workshops, fishers are invited to reflect on several questions. There are no wrong answers. Honest observations, even uncertain ones, are more useful than silence.
If you fish in Puerto Rico or the U.S. Virgin Islands and cannot attend a workshop, these same questions are for you. The six questions below are a sample of what we will ask. You are welcome to submit feedback using the code below.
Of all the species you fish for or see, which ones have changed the most since you started fishing?
Even if they are not species that we evaluated.
What kinds of changes have you noticed most?
For example: how many you see, their size, where or how deep you find them, or what time of year you catch them.
Have you noticed changes in the environment that you think are affecting the fish or fishing?
If so, which changes seem most important?
What else do you think we should know that we haven’t asked about?
Tell us about your experiences.
Are there any important species we left out of this assessment?
If so, which ones?
If the changes you’re seeing continue, what do you think fishing in your area will look like 20 years from now?
Even an uncertain view helps managers understand what communities worry about most.
Where fisher feedback goes
What fishers share is reviewed by our team and will be included in the final report for March 2027.
From the dock to management
Responses from the workshops and the online survey will be reviewed by our team and shared with the Caribbean Fishery Management Council.
Observations that differ from the scientific assessment, especially when several fishers report the same thing, are useful in providing a more robust and well-rounded review for the management bodies to use in evaluation management scenarios.
What participation does and doesn't mean
This is not a regulatory process. Taking part does not affect anyone's fishing rights. It is also important to note that sharing feedback will not change the vulnerability ranking of the species. The CVA is still a biological assessment that follows a standard practice. However, we are taking extra steps to include fisher experiences to provide as much information as possible the CFMC for their future evaluation of these 25 species.
Participants will not be contacted individually and no personal information is required to be shared when submitting feedback.
The online survey stays open for 30 days
If you can’t attend a workshop, or think of more to share afterwards, the survey covers the same ground at your own pace.
